Week #1 is upon us. The long awaited moment of the first kickoff to the 2013 season is hours away. I have started my celebration early and have a good base going, so this should be a interesting Week 1 Blog.
Let's first start with listing the schedule for Week 1....
Date & Time Favorite Underdog
9/5 8:30 ET
At Denver -8.5
Baltimore
9/8 1:00 ET
New England -9
At Buffalo
9/8 1:00 ET
At Pittsburgh -7
Tennessee
9/8 1:00 ET
At New Orleans -3
Atlanta
9/8 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay -3.5
At NY Jets
9/8 1:00 ET
Kansas City -4
At Jacksonville
9/8 1:00 ET
At Chicago -3
Cincinnati
9/8 1:00 ET
At Cleveland -1
Miami
9/8 1:00 ET
Seattle -3
At Carolina
9/8 1:00 ET
At Detroit -5
Minnesota
9/8 1:00 ET
At Indianapolis -9.5
Oakland
9/8 4:25 ET
At St. Louis -4.5
Arizona
9/8 4:25 ET
At San Francisco -4.5
Green Bay
9/8 8:30 ET
At Dallas
-3.5
NY Giants
Monday Night Football
9/9 7:10 ET
At Washington -3.5
Philadelphia
9/9 10:20 ET
Houston -4
At San Diego
That schedule is a thing of beauty, isn't it? Some key match ups and mismatches this week. I am not going to break down every game in the weekly Blogs, but I will hit on the main games (Sunday Night and Monday Night Football). Let's get this thing started with our mismatches.
Atlanta At New Orleans
Not sure if I would completely call this a "mismatch game", but not sure what else to call it. You have a NO team that has a non-existent running game and one of the best and most consistent passing games that we have seen in recent years. This NO offense, comprised of Graham, Colston, Moore, Stills and any of the 3 headed catching machines they put in at running back, is designed to score fast and often. Which is a good thing because their defense is terrible. But on the good side...Atlanta's pass defense is not very strong. By "not very strong" I actually mean, "very weak!" But let's not get carried away knocking Atlanta's pass defense, when one of the worst overall defenses in history title is held by our pass happy Saints. They allowed the most passing TDs in the league last year and are looking to continue that trend. The Saints will start the year without Jonathan Vilma, who has been placed on short-term injured reserve. And "gettin jiggy wid it" Will Smith is out for the year with a torn ACL. The O/U on this game is at 54. This game could easily be over that total in the middle of the 3rd quarter, but we need to remember it is the first week of the season and teams need time to warm up.
Outlook: Start the obvious guys in this game (Brees, Ryan, Graham, Julio and White) and sit back and watch the points come rolling in. The two sleepers to go with in this game are Colston and Steven Jackson. I see Atlanta getting ahead in this game and running it with Jackson and dropping short passes to him (and option they never had with Burner Turner). Then, expect Colston to grab around 8-10 catches because NO will need to throw around 45 times and Graham can't catch all of them!
New England At Buffalo
This game is going to be a long one for Buffalo. NE is they type of team to change their style of how they play football to the team they are playing and the personnel they have healthy and on the field. NE is not known for grinding it out with their running game, but with Buffalo allowing a little over 5 yards a carry on defense last year...get ready for NE to exploit that! Oh, and don't forget...they have Brady! On the other side of the field there is Buffalo. I am a huge Spiller fan, but he is going to have a tough time getting much for rushing years in this match up. Not because NE has an unreal rush defense....
---Beer Break---
but more because NE is going to focus on Spiller and make the Rookie QB beat them. Manuel is going to have to pick apart this NE defense to stand a chance in this game. That is a lot to ask a rookie QB who was injured through part of training camp. Manuel is going to see some crazy looks coming his way. He will need to have a quick learning curve.
Outlook: Start the obvious again (Brady, Ridley, Amendola and Spiller). The sleeper I like in this game is Vereen. Look for Vereen to gain some good yards when he does get his chances to run. I like him even more in PPR leagues catching a bunch of short dump offs in the flats and on 3rd downs.
Baltimore At Denver
I initially was confused by the opening line on this game coming out around 9.5. But after looking into this game further I can see where they are coming from. Denver obviously has a fantastic quarterback in Manning and they have surrounded him with 3 very talented WRs (Thomas, Welker and Decker). The Denver defense is among the top in the league as well. However, they still have not found an answer to their running back needs. Also, they do not have a strong O-line, which directly impacts their inability to run the ball. Manning is so good that he rarely gets hit, even with a weak line, but that may become a problem later in the season. Tonight...not so much. Since Baltimore is not the "power house" defense they once were. With Future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis retiring after 17 seasons and safety Ed Reed signing with Houston. Gone as well are leading tacklers Bernard Pollard and Dannell Ellerbe and fellow defensive starters Paul Kruger and Cary Williams. Now onto Baltimore's offense. They still have the highest paid QB in the league (still crazy to me) Flacco and have a very talented RB in Rice, but is that going to be enough? I just don't think so. The biggest loss for this team in my opinion was Boldin. Whenever this team needed a first down or a good chunk of yards, Flacco would throw it his way and that beast would come down with it in clutch situations. Torrey Smith is just not that guy! Denver wins this game relatively with ease in front of their home crowd.
Outlook: Start Manning for sure! Trade for him this year if you don't have him already. He is going to have a fantastic season. Don't take a chance on any Denver RB yet...resist that urge to start Ball so you can have a fantasy player to cheer for! Start Thomas and Welker, I am not sure where Decker is going to pan out this year...but someone will lose catches to "Mr. I'm always open" Welker. For Baltimore...I would start Rice for sure. Even if they are way behind he will still get the ball. I am passing of starting Flacco, but I would start Smith...if you don't have another good option.
Philadelphia At Washington
This game is going to be a good one. I am excited to see how Chip Kelly runs this Eagles team. I really like Mccoy this year, as long as he can stay healthy. I think he is going to get more opportunities to catch the ball in this offense. Try and get him in PPR leagues for sure! In this game I see that Philly is going to throw the ball often and take advantage of Washington's weak secondary and Washington is going to run all over Philly's not so good overall defense with Morris and RG3. Welcome back! I do not think that Washington will run many of their designed QB running plays in this game, but RG3 has a difficult time stopping himself from taking off. I expect a good game from him and Morris, and even Helu. Helu is one to watch this season! If anything happens to Morris, Helu is finally healthy and looking to take over. You heard it here. And now to talk about Vick...nah! But watch for DJax...he's the only guy out there that can catch the ball, other than Mccoy.
Outlook: Start RG3, Morris, Mccoy. If you are looking for a sleeper in a PPR league pick up Helu. Do it this week, because Washington might put him in as 3rd down back and he could be a nice Sproles type of player. Don't sleep on DJax either. He is hands down Philly's best and only top WR...someone has to catch the ball.
Well, that's it for game breakdowns. My ADHD is kicking in and need to get to top 10 starters for each position. I'll always throw a couple sleepers out there at the end too along with my best bet play for the weekend (or maybe two).
QBs:
Stafford (MN secondary is terrible)
Brees
Manning
Ryan
Rodgers
Romo (sleeper)
Rothlisberger (sleeper)
Brady
Luck
Dalton
RBs:
Peterson (Beast Mode)
Charles
Mccoy
S. Jackson (Sleeper)
Morris
Gore (sleeper)
Ridley
Martin
T. Richardson
Murray
Additional sleepers...McFadden, Tate, Vereen
WRs:
Calvin Johnson (huge game)
J. Jones
Bryant
Marshall
Green
D. Thomas
Garcon (sleeper)
Colston
Cruz
A. Johnson
Additional Sleepers...R. White, Fitzgerald, DJax
TEs:
Graham
Davis
Finley (Big Sleeper pick! Get him on your roster)
Witten
Gonzo
Meyers
Olsen
Sudfeld (Sleeper)
Daniels
Additional Sleepers....J. Thomas, Pettigrew
Best Bet:
KC -4: I say lay the road chalk with this KC team. Jacksonville will not have an answer for KC's running attack and Smith will make them stay honest on defense to not crowd the box. I am looking at big games from Charles and Bowe in this match up.
Seattle -3: I have Seattle in the top 3 of my power rankings and Carolina is not even close! Watch the Seattle lines this season become very inflated once they come out flying this year. Then, we will make plays against them. Until that time comes...we hit them!
Hope you all enjoyed my Week 1 breakdown. Please leave a comment below! You can say you liked it, hated it, I lost the week for you or any comments on what you would like me to write about.
Beer of the day(the beer I'm drinking while writing this) was...
Blackburn Out!
